Start with a falsifiable thesis: a statement about market behavior that could be wrong. “Bitcoin will rise” is a prediction. “Positive medium-term trend tends to persist when volatility is stable” is a testable thesis.

Write the minimum rule set

Define one entry, one exit, one allocation rule, and one condition that invalidates the idea. Complexity should be earned by evidence.

Choose the evidence before the result

Select the benchmark, market regimes, fees, and observation period in advance. This reduces the temptation to change the test after seeing an outcome.

Paper action
Open Forge and create a draft containing a thesis, entry, exit, and maximum allocation.